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the no-maneuver counterfactual is deeply supercritical with sub-year e-fold: the fuel-limited transient cascade, burning hot and burning out as the intact fleet is consumed and drag flushes the products", "700-1000": "ratchet band: comparable rho* but tau_drag >> policy horizon \u2014 crossings effectively irreversible; consequence band", "criterion": "distance-to-threshold per band; NEVER a date" }, "trajectories_50yr": { "baseline": { "D_tracked_by_band": { "yr0": { "150-465": [ 97.20046498221127, 97.20046498221127, 97.20046498221127 ], "465-495": [ 45.532217134596145, 45.532217134596145, 45.532217134596145 ], "495-570": [ 238.0929036958046, 238.0929036958046, 238.0929036958046 ], "570-700": [ 1155.9739768418453, 1155.9739768418453, 1155.9739768418453 ], "700-1000": [ 5092.293949991949, 5092.293949991949, 5092.293949991949 ], "1000-2000": [ 2498.161449232566, 2498.161449232566, 2498.161449232566 ] }, "yr5": { "150-465": [ 92.69021083144115, 392.5766106907632, 2014.172183548943 ], 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3299.202361244548, 41910.53524701674 ], "570-700": [ 2376.0369344355045, 8544.314908434564, 62076.76222124309 ], "700-1000": [ 6037.033304402135, 14812.732277719013, 120482.70254620232 ], "1000-2000": [ 2563.5103938340512, 3096.675037109631, 5002.557159686628 ] }, "yr50": { "150-465": [ 98.43247091914661, 488.84632276497416, 7406.297257055824 ], "465-495": [ 355.85805225076257, 2025.502224472089, 43003.69540873624 ], "495-570": [ 718.6805389323281, 3459.443698231009, 59810.60076565132 ], "570-700": [ 1853.5723819712584, 9363.833188081768, 138796.49815169346 ], "700-1000": [ 5895.415164335312, 25691.755609272375, 563035.126344696 ], "1000-2000": [ 2630.956305600409, 3752.430617771005, 8392.288796757322 ] } }, "crewed_relative_lethal_load_yr1_5_10": [ [ 0.5237271844435908, 2.1875908331101384, 9.81678873727365 ], [ 1.6047622934287642, 7.841608217928842, 47.47019674283852 ], [ 1.8075230065432082, 9.956890138359146, 141.37309046289698 ] ], "note": "D3 commission (Institutions rec 2): launch stop + ASSUMED disposal compliance 0.85-0.97 (anchor ~90% base rates, untested at fleet scale). The gap between this scenario and launch_stop (abandonment-in-place) is the MEASURED-in-model value of the disposal/resolution institution \u2014 the two-band gap discipline applied to governance." } }, "crewed_receptor": { "maneuver_regime_label": "NON-TRACKED component (~96%) is UNAVOIDABLE regardless of maneuver regime; tracked component assumes NO avoidance (stations do avoid tracked objects)", "P_lethal_strike_per_year_floor": [ 0.006384639835278555, 0.013885549479395687, 0.03021361746958797 ], "station_breakup_relative_lethal_load_yr1_5_10": [ [ 1.6985444460283172, 16.613779890140542, 73.33458554441619 ], [ 1.5225191492958943, 7.3064559181846835, 48.70738531375738 ], [ 1.9770385280706462, 10.154583272678256, 100.32156136629982 ] ] }, "upward_coupling_bound": { "fraction_lethal_fragments_apogee_above_700km_from_480_event": 0.33671, "rule": "perigees stay <= source altitude, so B1 drag removal at perigee governs lifetime; v1 does NOT deposit these into upper-band stocks \u2014 diagnostic bound only (D1 Q3)" }, "phase_mixing_ramp": { "T_mix_days_p05_p50_p95": [ 7.760887155791789, 15.631904544998143, 30.969540251778238 ], "median_first_collision_days_p05_p50_p95": [ 2.882013224812377, 4.090215895575402, 5.757151578968306 ], "asymptotic_median_days": 0.5351192500041464, "note": "loss-of-control waiting time governed by the ramp, not the 0.71-d asymptote (D1 Q4)" }, "validation": { "t0_total_rate_gate": 1.4014444149172292, "t0_stocks_I": [ 2042.3512973465834, 7891.672774270412, 2375.547217320545, 1981.5504706132476, 1891.4636747407847, 2471.932722858783 ], "t0_stocks_D": [ 97.20046498221127, 45.532217134596145, 238.0929036958046, 1155.9739768418453, 5092.293949991949, 2498.161449232566 ], "conservation_note": "C1 flux conserved by construction (band i removal = band i-1 input); reentry only from band 0" }, "R2_operational_layer": "STUB at v1: capacity params ASSUMED pending operator data; excluded from headline outputs (spec)", "zero_event_calibration_D5_F14": "REFEREE-VERIFIED (D5): integrating conjunction-convention exposure over the actual fleet history (Clock timeline 164d->1.75d) gives ~247 convention-events; at knob medians the expected catastrophic count is Lambda ~ 0.12 -> P(0) ~ 0.89 \u2014 comfortably consistent. Formal 95% zero-event upper bound: (bias*xsec*f_imp)*man_pair <= 0.0135; the median product 5.4e-4 sits 25x below it. History only weakly constrains the knobs from above; medians need no revision. (Supersedes the Author's over-penalizing ~5-shell-year note.)", "epistemic_reading_F15": "P_supercritical values are probabilities over the ASSUMED knob distributions \u2014 parameter belief, not event frequency: 'given our parameter uncertainty, X% of draws put the band past the threshold.' debris_feedback_efold_days is the PRODUCTION-ONLY e-fold (removal excluded): accurate where tau_drag >> e-fold (700-1000), a footnoted upper-growth-rate elsewhere.", "scenario_notes": { "launch_stop": "abandonment-in-place (actives go derelict over ~5 yr, NO disposal) \u2014 suppression is lost and the fuel-limited transient partially ignites; a responsible wind-down (FCC 5-yr disposal compliance) is a DIFFERENT scenario, not yet built \u2014 the contrast is an avenue lever", "no_maneuver": "counterfactual regime, never a forecast; the label required by D1 Q4 condition 1" }, "tags": { "MEASURED": "t0 stocks/rates (seat-verified n_h_v1)", "SOURCED": "tau_drag RANGES; SBM law; ntr 20-30x", "DERIVED": "T_mix structure", "ASSUMED": "f_imp (dominant sensitivity); s_man; tau_d band MEDIANS (Author interpolation of the sourced ranges \u2014 the shaping is an ASSUMED step, F16); tauL = 0.4*tau_d; masses; active fractions; storm magnitudes; station area" } }